The Baltimore Orioles enter this offseason fully aware that last year’s approach cannot be repeated if they hope to return to playoff contention. After a breakout 2023 season that positioned them as one of the most exciting young teams in baseball, Baltimore opted against making significant additions to their pitching rotation the following winter. That decision proved costly. The rotation regressed sharply, depth evaporated, and the Orioles ultimately missed the postseason, a setback that felt avoidable given the roster’s offensive capability and the emergence of several young stars.
Now, the pressure is squarely on the front office to overhaul a pitching staff that has too often been stretched thin. Baltimore has long been praised for its player development pipeline—particularly for position players—but the organization has struggled to pair its young hitters with an equally competitive and reliable group of starting pitchers. This offseason represents a crucial opportunity to correct that imbalance, and one projection suggests the Orioles may finally turn to a consistent veteran arm to help anchor the rotation.
Ryan Finkelstein of Just Baseball recently projected that the Orioles would sign free-agent starter Merrill Kelly to a two-year, $36 million contract, a move that immediately generated intrigue across the league. Kelly, who spent the 2024 season with the Texas Rangers, remains one of the most dependable and underrated pitchers in baseball. Despite entering his age-36 season, his steady production and durable track record make him a logical target for a team trying to stabilize its rotation without committing to a lengthy deal.
“What team loves old starting pitchers more than the Baltimore Orioles?” Finkelstein wrote, pointing to Baltimore’s history of bringing in reliable veterans rather than chasing splashier, high-risk names. “With Kyle Gibson and Charlie Morton being the last few prominent starting pitchers that the Orioles have signed, the fit for Merrill Kelly makes too much sense here. Now, this is not a knock on Merrill Kelly, who is coming off a great season, and really years of being one of the most dependable starting pitchers in baseball. Kelly would actually be a great addition in Baltimore.”
Kelly’s appeal lies not only in his durability but also in his adaptability. He has shown an ability to adjust his pitch mix, maintain command deep into games, and perform in high-pressure situations—qualities that the Orioles notably lacked in their rotation throughout the previous season. Injuries, inconsistency, and the inability to match up against top-tier lineups ultimately doomed Baltimore, particularly in the second half. Kelly would immediately bring innings, poise, and leadership to a staff where those traits were sorely missing.
Still, while Kelly would be a welcome addition, he cannot be the Orioles’ only move. Baltimore likely needs two or even three starters to adequately reshape the rotation. Simply plugging in a veteran and calling it an offseason would repeat the mistakes that cost them so dearly last year. This team, loaded with young offensive talent and entering its competitive window, must act aggressively and decisively.
That reality explains why Kelly, while valuable, isn’t expected to be the headlining acquisition. Baltimore should still pursue a top-of-the-rotation arm—someone with the swing-and-miss ability and innings-eating reliability that can transform the pitching staff from average to formidable. Names like Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai make sense in that capacity. Valdez, with his postseason résumé and consistent production for Houston, fits the mold of a true No. 1 or high-end No. 2 starter. Imai, meanwhile, represents the type of high-upside international signing who could become a long-term fixture in Baltimore.
Pairing a frontline pitcher with Kelly would dramatically reshape the complexion of the rotation. A veteran like Kelly provides stability, consistency, and leadership; a high-end addition provides ceiling, strikeouts, and the type of matchup-proof quality the Orioles lacked when facing the league’s best offenses. In combination, those moves would help protect the bullpen, relieve pressure on the younger pitchers, and give Baltimore a legitimate chance to contend deep into October.
Where the Orioles go from here will depend on the approach they take in the coming weeks. Historically, Baltimore has been measured—sometimes overly cautious—in free agency, preferring to avoid long-term financial commitments. But with the window to win clearly open and the roster featuring several players reaching their prime simultaneously, the time for half-measures has passed. The front office knows the team cannot rely solely on internal development to solve the rotation issue. They need proven arms, and they need them now.
Kelly represents a smart and relatively low-risk step toward fixing what went wrong last season. A two-year commitment would not hinder future flexibility, and the annual value of the deal aligns with what mid-rotation veterans typically command. More importantly, he brings experience and steadiness, attributes that become invaluable during the grind of a long season and even more so in competitive late-summer stretches when every game matters.
If the Orioles do ultimately land Kelly, it should not be viewed as the final piece of the puzzle but rather an essential component of a larger strategy. Baltimore’s young core remains strong, their offense is capable of carrying them through long stretches, and their bullpen—when not overtaxed—can be effective. The glaring weakness remains the rotation. Fixing it requires a multipronged effort, and adding Merrill Kelly would be a strong move in the right direction.
Whether the Orioles ultimately take that step remains to be seen, but the message entering this offseason is clear: the team cannot afford another year of neglecting its pitching staff. The consequences of inaction were made painfully clear last season. To avoid a repeat, Baltimore must be aggressive, decisive, and willing to invest in the type of arms that can finally restore balance to a roster bursting with talent. If they seize this moment, the Orioles can return to the postseason and perhaps even take the next step. If they fail, another year of squandered potential could follow—an outcome no one in Baltimore wants to see.
