One year ago today, the Orioles and Brewers made a major trade that sent Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Now that Burnes has signed with the Diamondbacks and the Orioles didn’t win a playoff game during his lone season with them, the debate over who “won” the trade may continue for years. However, both teams likely benefited in different ways.
From the Orioles’ perspective, acquiring an ace like Burnes was a significant advantage for their pitching rotation. On paper, adding a top-tier starter seemed like the missing piece to push their young, talented team into World Series contention, even though their postseason hopes fell short. Giving up Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a Competitive Balance Round-A (CBR-A) draft pick for just one season of Burnes was viewed as an acceptable trade-off, especially since the Orioles had the depth in their farm system to make such a move.
Fast forward to 2025, and the Orioles find themselves in a similar position heading into the season, still looking for a postseason breakthrough. However, they’ve been active in free agency, adding Tyler O’Neill, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sanchez, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Charlie Morton, which boosts their payroll from $102.5 million in 2024 to $157.3 million in 2025. While O’Neill is the only free agent signed beyond next season, the Orioles haven’t yet committed to long-term spending as many expected under new owner David Rubenstein.
The Orioles’ roster, as of February 1, remains strong, and they are expected to be playoff contenders for the third straight year. However, if the team is still looking to make a splash but doesn’t want to break the bank in free agency, the trade market might be the best option. Although their farm system has been depleted by previous trades and player promotions, the Orioles have a unique asset in their CBR-A pick, which could help them land experienced talent before Opening Day.
Major League Baseball doesn’t allow teams to trade regular draft picks, but teams with a CBR pick can trade it. These picks go to teams that fall within the league’s bottom 10 for market size or revenue, and the Orioles have received an extra CBR pick every year. The Orioles traded their 2024 CBR-A pick (34th overall) as part of the Burnes deal, and other teams, like the Reds, Athletics, and Diamondbacks, have also traded their CBR picks in recent deals.
For 2025, the Orioles’ CBR-A pick will be in the second Competitive Balance Round, currently slotted at the 71st overall pick. In total, the Orioles will have six picks within the first 94 of the 2025 draft, including their regular picks and compensation picks for Burnes and Anthony Santander signing elsewhere. These additional compensation picks make it likely that the Orioles will be willing to trade their CBR-B pick, as it’s uncommon for a team to have two qualified free agents leave in the same offseason.
The Orioles’ willingness to include their CBR-A pick in the Burnes trade may have been influenced by the extra bonus pick they received in 2024 due to Gunnar Henderson’s AL Rookie of the Year win. Even though the CBR-B pick is of lesser value than the CBR-A pick, it could still be used in a trade for valuable talent. The Orioles may be looking to replicate the Burnes trade, using their CBR-B pick as part of a package for another ace pitcher.
Dylan Cease is a potential target for the Orioles, with the Padres reportedly gauging interest in him. Like Burnes, Cease is one year away from free agency, and the Orioles might view him as a one-year rental, hoping to receive compensatory picks when he leaves in free agency next offseason. The CBR-B pick could be a valuable chip in acquiring Cease, as it’s something most other teams interested in him don’t have. However, the Twins also have a CBR pick and might have an advantage with the 36th overall selection.
Regardless of whether the CBR-B pick is traded, the Orioles are set to have a strong draft in 2025, with six picks in the top 94. Trading the 71st overall pick for immediate help could be the best way to balance the team’s long-term and short-term goals.
