The Reds’ bullpen has been under the microscope this offseason. Pagán, originally signed to a two-year, $16 million deal in the 2023-24 offseason, is now entering free agency and his projected market value is forcing the Reds to make a decision.
According to MLB trade-rumours and contract-projection data, Pagán is expected to land something in the ballpark of a two-year, $22 million deal if he hits the open market. That becomes especially salient when you factor in his age (he’ll be turning 35 in early May of the next season) and the fact that relievers are inherently volatile.
From a performance standpoint, Pagán delivered one of his better seasons in 2025 with the Reds — a 2.88 ERA over 68.2 innings, with 32 saves helping him emerge as a reliable closer option. But his career has also included seasons of ERA north of 4.40, and the inconsistency catches up when you’re negotiating higher compensation.
For the Reds, the key question becomes: do they pay up to bring him back, or do they let him walk and seek bullpen help via other means? The contract projection creates a kind of forced decision. If he signs for ~$11 million per year (as the projection suggests), that may be more than the team wants to invest in a reliever with his age and previous fluctuations.
On the flip side, the Reds’ bullpen depth beyond Pagán is uncertain. Some of the other high-leverage arms are either free agents themselves or not proven to the same extent. That puts a premium on retention of someone who has closed games.
Financially, the Reds also face pressure from arbitration raises for other players, which will eat into their budget for free agent signings. This makes the decision around Pagán doubly important: commit now and it uses up budget, or pass and redirect resources elsewhere.
Given all this, the “painfully obvious” move for the Reds appears to be letting Pagán walk (or at least not matching the full projected market value) and channeling their resources to younger, controllable bullpen options or making a trade. The projection of $22 million over two years makes renewing him at that level less attractive for a smaller-budget club. Failing to act decisively could leave the Reds in a scenario where they overpay or under-invest elsewhere.
In short: Pagán has earned his way to a decent market value. The Reds now must decide whether to meet that market or take the more conservative route. His contract projection essentially forces their hand — it’s one of the more pressing decisions the front office has this offseason.
