The Vegas Golden Knights have built their identity on bold, win-now moves — and Mitch Marner could be their next high-profile target. With free agency looming on July 1st, Vegas appears poised to do what it often does: clear cap space and chase star power.
Whether it was trading for Jack Eichel, acquiring Max Pacioretty, or moving on from Marc-André Fleury despite elite numbers, Vegas has never been shy about making tough decisions in pursuit of a Stanley Cup.
Marner, a top-tier playmaker with elite zone entry skills and power-play impact, fits the Golden Knights’ style. He would add another weapon alongside Eichel, Stone, and Marchessault (assuming he’s re-signed), and help Vegas reload without missing a beat.
The question now is who they’ll move to create the room. Shea Theodore? Alec Martinez? Logan Thompson? Cap gymnastics will be needed, but Vegas has done it before — and with Marner on the market, they’ll likely try to do it again.
William Karlsson is a logical candidate for Vegas to move if they want to make a serious run at Mitch Marner. His $5.9 million AAV and reduced production in 2024 — just 29 points in 53 games — make him a movable piece, especially as he’s slid down the lineup to more of a third-line role.
However, his previous output (60 points in 70 games the year before) shows there’s still value there — particularly for a team like the Montreal Canadiens, who:
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Could use a veteran stop-gap center,
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Have cap flexibility,
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Might benefit from Karlsson’s two-way play and leadership while giving their younger players more time to develop.
If Vegas can move Karlsson (with or without retaining salary), it would free up a substantial chunk of cap space and push them closer to the $11–12 million AAV range it might take to seriously bid on Marner.
Given the cap-clearing urgency for Vegas and Karlsson’s modified no-trade clause, this could shape up as a classic case of “value by necessity.”
While Montreal might indeed appear on Karlsson’s 10-team no-trade list, that doesn’t guarantee he’s untouchable for the Habs. Players often waive such restrictions if the destination offers a defined role, playing time, or a respectable chance at success. And in Montreal, Karlsson could find all three — especially as a stabilizing presence behind Suzuki and Dach.
As for cost, you’re absolutely right — the Golden Knights’ recent history suggests they’re willing to offload players like Karlsson for little return if it serves a greater cap-driven purpose. The Canadiens, flush with draft capital (12 picks this year, 9 next year), are uniquely positioned to absorb such a contract, especially if it nets them a late pick back or allows them to package another asset.
Bottom line: if Karlsson is willing, this could be a low-cost, medium-reward play for Montreal — and a cap lifeline for Vegas.
That’s exactly the kind of dilemma Montreal faces: do you take on a potentially toxic long-term contract to fill a short-term need and jump ahead of other buyers? With Tomas Hertl, the answer hinges on how much cap relief Vegas is willing to pay for — in the form of picks, prospects, or even retained salary.
The upside? Hertl is still a productive top-six center. Pairing him with Ivan Demidov or even Patrik Laine could create immediate chemistry, and it would take pressure off younger players like Kirby Dach as they return to full strength. And for Montreal, this could be a rare chance to acquire a legit play-driving pivot without giving up top-tier future assets — if Vegas is desperate enough to shed salary.
The downside? You’re locking yourself into five more years of $6.75M AAV on a player already past 30 with injury history. That’s a big swing, and GM Kent Hughes would have to weigh whether short-term offensive support is worth the long-term cap squeeze — especially with younger contracts (like Reinbacher or Hutson) likely to rise by 2027.
Bottom line: unless Vegas sweetens the pot significantly — think multiple picks or a top prospect — Hertl is a hard sell for Montreal’s long-term vision. But if the Habs can afford a gamble, and the Knights are truly motivated? It’s the type of move that could make or break a playoff push.
